EFFECT OF SELECTED MACROECONOMICS VARIABLES ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA
EKINE, D.I. & ETOK, I.B.
This paper evaluates the influence of selected macroeconomics variables on the performance of the agricultural sector in Nigeria for the period 1986-2014. Data was sourced from CBN statistical bulletin and the econometric method of ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test and the ECM was used for the analysis. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test revealed that government expenditure, agricultural sector output and foreign direct investment were firstdifference stationary, while gross domestic product was second-difference stationary. There is also a long-run equilibrium relationship among these variables as depicted by the Johansen cointegration result. The ECM results indicated that government expenditure had a negative significant effect on agriculture sector output in the long run; foreign direct investment had a significant positive impact on agricultural sector output, while gross domestic product did not have any expanding influence on agricultural sector output The value of the coefficient of determination (R2 ) of 0.647359 showed that the exogenous variables in the ECM equation, FDI, GDP and government expenditure explained over 65% of the systematic variations in agricultural sector output. The findings of the study suggest that the policy thrust should focus on attracting more foreign direct investment; effective monitoring and supervision of public funds to agriculture to ensure its judicious use and putting in place measures to translate economic growth propelled by other sectors to agricultural sector growth in the country.